Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the crisis triggered by the presentation of a new 28-point plan for ending the war appeared – momentarily – to have been contained. A senior US official spoke of "notable headway" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its retaliation: another massive barrage of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Diplomacy and Destruction
The chain of opposing developments captured the grim essence of the outgoing year. By day, diplomatic battles are waged: positive announcements are delivered from multiple capitals. Significant resources is devoted on containing specific proposals. By night, the Kremlin forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the main instrument for achieving "settlement".
Nocturnal Warfare
As military strikes progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's vulnerability was exposed. Ukraine is able to track projectile deployments from enemy soil, a capacity provided through timely intelligence. From observation points, defense planes that had been scrambled to engage hostile aerial threats streaked across the sky – advanced fighter aircraft supplied to Ukraine by European allies.
Shortly after, Kyiv's missile defense engaged: multiple launches targeted at a incoming threat. This was a modern interception technology at work, presumably supplied through Western nations. Every firing shakes the surroundings, shaking the windows. The brief panic quickly gives way to grim resignation: perhaps the hostile projectile won't hit its mark this time, protecting urban areas from devastation and another blackout.
Ongoing Risks
Following this, a large-caliber weapon opened up on a unmanned aircraft somewhere nearby, part of a defensive team – almost certainly allied-provided weaponry. Unfortunately, the bullets missed the opposing UAV – it maintained course toward its destination.
Periodically, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv greeted the daybreak reports: several casualties, destruction and infrastructure problems in multiple buildings as a result of the evening attack. As customarily, everyone still continued their routines – experiencing conflict. But those entire period illustrated Ukraine's essential dependence on international aid – a reliance that regional partners are evidently unprepared to fill in the immediate future.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The 28-point plan from American leadership sparked intense emotion, discussion and profound anxiety – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after earlier high-level meetings and multilateral gatherings.
Every new approach from US leadership adheres to the same pattern: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, succeeds in resisting. They manage the tension but never actually secure success. This trend will, certainly, endure.
Strategic Calculations
It is convenient to criticize certain parties of repeatedly advocating Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. American leadership works based on a assumption understood by international relations experts: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have been unable to protect through force. The White House presumes that it is unfeasible to compel Moscow to abandon the land that it currently occupies in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The challenge is that while recognising this factual reality, US leadership does nothing to prevent Kremlin actions, through words or deeds, from thinking that the situation will not shift further in its advantage in the coming year.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, Russian leadership is certain that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its partners are coming close to fatigue. Their motivation to agree to terms that does not give them the maximum possible gain is virtually nonexistent. There may be numerous efforts to end hostilities, but they will persist as long as Russia's leader remains highly assured in the result.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still persist, gradually sacrificing lives and land but preventing a entire defensive failure until conditions improve in its benefit.
Existing Situation
Objectively, there are no genuine requirements for a ceasefire. Now, subjective factors are coming into play: political desires to negotiate peace and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Kyiv's double obstacles – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the flag against any initiative Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their attention does not switch to homefront challenges. And although their task will now be considerably more difficult after current events, it remains highly unlikely that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These conflicting dynamics are influencing discussions.
Summary and Prospects
It took a mere seven days to kill the suggested clauses of the current initiative. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by American leadership, resistance by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with pacifying measures of representatives, and finally, recent disclosures, all did their job.
While new proposals based on old ideas are approaching, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off diplomatic offensives from Washington that are based on Russian demands and reflect certain reluctance to change the course of events, if they remain united and improve their protective measures at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the predictable period, primarily depend on ongoing international assistance.
