A decade after the UK entered into a rushed referendum that polarised the nation and triggered chaos, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two prominent writers from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially contentious and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can arise suddenly and can build support rapidly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our region remains very unstable."
Released Volume Intends to Stir Debate
The duo have analysed the political, economic and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a book, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the matter with a roadshow of public talks that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everyone, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose implications have not been clarified because then you end up with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side don't know precisely what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue this point is looming, and a group named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the prospect, resulting in ambiguity when or if there could be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has hidden the lack of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the concrete planning which could extend past that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has gone on in scholarly circles but very few elected officials or activists want to engage with even the essentials. For instance, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, neither author advocates unification or the current situation. They writes two essays that aim for objectivity in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering economic and social statistics, previous instances and structural examples.
Arguments encompass flags and symbols, taxes, medical care, retirement funds, public liabilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The aim is to inform and provoke conversation.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there is still lacking a dialogue," commented the writer. "Discussion implies an acknowledgement of the idea that there could be valid points on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens report they support unity but refuse paying higher taxes or implementing a new flag to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland should determine what the plan from Irish nationalism is beyond just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist believes a referendum in his generation is likely and that it could happen suddenly. "It is possible just a mad or a bad or a feckless secretary of state who states: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid arguments, he stated. "Somebody will win on this issue and somebody will ultimately be defeated but both parties has has valuable insights to gain from the other's viewpoints."
Call for Broader Dialogue
Westminster needed to join the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish question."
